Tag Archives: Russia

Iran’s Navy Prepares to be Served

Never make idol threats, you just might get what you asked for..

English: Map of Strait of Hormuz Español: Mapa...

A senior Iranian official on Tuesday delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. European Union leaders have also called for more sanctions against Iran by the end of January but have made no explicit call for an embargo on Iranian crude imports. The bloc is considering an embargo on Iranian oil exports that would block the sale of about 450,000 barrels a day from Iran into the EU

The declaration by Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, came as President Obama prepares to sign legislation that, if fully implemented, could substantially reduce Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program. “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” he stated according to Iran’s official news agency. (Iran is currently having war games for 10 days in the area)

Most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – together with nearly all the liquefied natural gas from lead exporter Qatar – must slip through the Strait of Hormuz, a 4-mile wide shipping channel between Oman and Iran. Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia and other Gulf OPEC states are ready to replace Iranian oil if further sanctions halt Iranian crude exports to Europe, industry sources said on Tuesday. Iran’s Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi had said that Saudi Arabia had promised not to replace Iranian crude if sanctions are imposed. “No promise was made to Iran, its very unlikely that Saudi Arabia would not fill a demand gap if sanctions are placed,” an industry source familiar with the matter, who declined to be named, told Reuters. “If the sanctions take place, the price of oil in Europe would increase and Saudi and other Gulf countries would start selling there to fill the gap and also benefit from the higher price,” said a second industry source who declined to be named.

Benchmark U.S. crude oil futures jumped nearly a dollar to over $100 a barrel after the Iranian threat, but a Gulf OPEC delegate said the effect could be temporary. “For now any move in the oil price is short term, as I don’t see Iran actually going ahead with the threat,” the delegate told Reuters. The industry source said that in the case of EU sanctions, Iran would most likely export more of its crude to Asia, while Gulf States would divert their exports to Europe to fill the gap until the market is balanced again.

However in Asia, China is already driving a hard bargain. China’s top refiner Sinopec Corp said it would cut its January crude imports from Iran by half, in attempt to discount prices, trade sources told Reuters in December. A long-term disruption in the volume of supplies China buys would strengthen the impact on Iran of new U.S. and EU sanctions. Industry sources believe the dispute will likely be short lived, as Iran would back down if it fears it will lose market share in China.

When the sanctions come, a naval blockade is sure to follow. Time to call the bluff and up the ante

UPDATE 1

Dec 28 (Reuters) – The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it will not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the strategic oil route.”The free flow of goods and services through the Strait of Hormuz is vital to regional and global prosperity,” a spokesperson for the Bahrain-based fleet said in a written response to queries from Reuters about the possibility of Iran trying to close the waterway.”Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated.”Asked whether it was taking specific measures in response to the threat to close the Strait, the fleet said it “maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilizing activities”, without providing further detail.

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Knock the North Korean Regime over… or buy it.

VLADIVOSTOK. President Putin with Kim Jong-Il,...
Coniving Evil

The untimely but welcome death of one of histories most brutal dictators, Kim Jong il this weekend is a gift from heaven. This is a chance to fix a wrong that has polluted  the free world for over 60 years, and we would be foolish to waste it. And the best part is we can do it at a minimal cost.

Considering the fact the vast majority of th DPRK’s weaponry is pointed at South Korea and Japan, and the other well known fact of China propping up this failed regime all these years, means the 3 of them can handle the work on the ground, and we can make China pay for most of it. Sure we can contribute and give them a bunch of fuel, medical supplies and tons of food, but make that new kid in charge pay for it. I’m talking demilitarization or regime change, period. But I think we can do it without force. I’m saying lets us and Japan, China, South Korea and Russia simply buy them, or take them out before the garage sale starts. Call me crazy, but is it not realistic or feasible? How about that Right to protect framework?

Fact 1: Here are the basics of the DPRK’s military, with an estimated annual budget of 4-7 billion: The DPRK has enough Plutonium to fuel 6-7 nuclear weapons, most likely they are not yet mated to missiles, but they are getting close. The North has at least 1,000 missiles of various types, including some with a range of more than 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles). As far as chemical and biological weapons program, they have one assumed to still be in the R&D phase, but have stockpiled 2,500-5,000 tons believed to be anthrax, mustard gas, sarin, botulism and phosgene. Not pretty at all. They also have a shiny new uranium program. This list they must give up, period. It must be accounted for and destroyed immediately, no negotiations. Give it up or we topple you and take it.

As far as conventional forces the DPRK’s military currently number about 1.2 million, with reserves of 7.7 million. (Mind you the whole population is around 28 million.) The DPRK must reduce their forces to fewer than 500,000 and a reserve force of a million, That’s all they need to still be a force to be reckoned and maintain security, with but severely neutered.

The army has weaponry that includes 4000 ,, 2,500 apc’s, 7,500 pieces of artillery, 2,500 multi rocket launchers, 7,500 mortars, an unknown number of anti-tank guided weapons, 1,700 recoilless launchers, and 11,000 air defense guns. The navy has a large fleet of submarines, estimated at 92. It also has three frigates, six corvettes, 43 missile craft, 158 large patrol craft, 103 fast torpedo craft, more than 334 patrol force craft, 10 amphibious ships, two coastal defense missile batteries, 130 hovercraft, 23 minesweepers, eight midget ships, and four survey vessels. The air force has an estimated 80 bombers, 541 fighters, 316 transport planes, 588 transport helicopters, 24 attack helicopters and at least one unmanned drone as well as an ample supply of air-to-air missiles and surface-to-air missiles. The DMZ has most this in hidden emplacements all along the tightly controlled border along side approximately the highest density of land mines in the world: 2.3 for every square meter. How to clean up the DMZ, the 155-mile-long, and two-mile-wide no-man’s land will be a major predicament to say the least and could take decades and cost billions. Let them keep a number of weapons to supplement their militaries at a reasonable (and for now) controllable size.

Fact 2: Out of that 28 million, since the end of the Korean war there have been estimates of 4-6 million dead due to starvation, disease and murder. There are approximately 150,000-200,000 political prisoners as well, locked away in “re-education” and internment camps. Entire families locked away. In the civil population the average citizen is not much better. Basically farmers, peasants and soldiers mostly, along a capitol bought and paid for by the regime of around 3.2 million of the most loyal.

What kind of price would you put on this? How much have they milked from the world already? It is after all, not the North Korean’s fault, it’s the 2 Kim’s (soon to be 3) responsibility. I say if he agrees to hang it up once and for all and switch to trying to save his newly gained country from total collapse and really reform the country, by all means let’s help out. Well, then he can stay and the regime will be secure and get all the help they need. Because I promise you, Iran’s already shopping. I’m sure we can come to an agreement that will secure the country financially and save it from ruin, as well for the first time in over half a century, put some stability back into Asia.

And if they don’t give it up? Smash him. The world is fed up with this madman and his legacy already. Or do we wait for another 2 million dead?

Jeff Treesh is @IranAware

House passes 2 Iran bills

House passes 2 Iran bills by Jeff Treesh

Good movement on Iran finally, but will it be enough?

The GOP-controlled House of Representatives passed two national security measures yesterday, and threw the ball into the Democrat-controlled Senate’s court. By a 410-11 vote yesterday, the House approved the Iran Threat Reduction Act, H.R. 1905.  This bill would tighten sanctions against Iran, and allow for sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran if a finding is made that the bank supports Iran’s terrorist activities.

By a 418-2 vote, H.R. 2105, The Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Reform and Modernization Act, which provides for new sanctions against companies that transfer certain goods, services and technology to these countries. Both bills are off to the Senate now, adding to the Senate amendment that would impose sanctions on the Iranian central bank, to the defense bill passed last week in the 100-0.

If the bills pass the senate, It will be time for Obama to act Presidential and sign them all into law now.

We have 6 months to a year and Iran will have a nuclear bomb. They have enough enriched material now with 1 more cycle through the cascades, for up to 3 weapons.  Iran is currently ready to start enrichment deep inside a mountain at Qom, supporting Hezb’allah in taking over Lebanon, supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad (and countless others) in jihad funding, all the while supporting Assad and his homicidal campaign against his own people.  All this and they still find the time for killing and locking away any sign of resistance in their own citizens.

With a nuclear weapon(s) Iran will not just be a threat to Israel or the United States, but to the entire world. With a nuclear weapon, Iranian threats to the world’s citizens will become the norm, making the insane ranting of Kim Jong-Il look like a child wanting a toy. They will hold the world hostage for energy by blocking the straights and driving up the price with fear and intimidation. It will be in other words a nightmare. A nightmare with a regime that sends children to clear mine fields, stones their women, and thinks a suicide bomber’s mission is a gift to Allah.

Don’t forget the 12th Imam.

When the time comes around spring-summer 2012 when it comes down to imposing a (hopefully U.N. mandated) blockade, we must be prepared to go it alone.  I’m sure Britain and France will be united with us, even if the usual destabalizers of world peace Russia and China utilize their standard crying and complaining MO.

Because when the fall comes, our time will be up. Remember all the suicide bombers they have guided to their doom? Imagine nuclear ones.