Tag Archives: Jihad

Merry Christmas from the mullahs…

Iran’s war games could force U.S. to ‘respond aggressively’
Add this in as well for the weekend, the Taliban, al Qaeda connection.. Were building the case.. And not fast enough if you ask me.We need to strike by September.

Iran’s nuclear push is rapidly turning into a game of chicken with the world’s economy.

Faced with the threat of growing international sanctions and unprecedented economic uncertainty that has seen the value of its currency halved in recent weeks, Iran announced Thursday its navy will stage a 10-day exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, starting Saturday.

The move, which increases the risk of military confrontation with the United States, has the potential to temporarily choke off oil exports from the Middle East, drive up international energy prices and damage the global economy.

Admiral Habibollah Sayyari, head of Iran’s navy, said submarines, destroyers, missile-launching ships and attack boats will occupy a 2,000-kilometre stretch of sea from the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, to the Gulf of Aden, near the entrance to the Red Sea.

“Iran’s military and Revolutionary Guards can close the Strait of Hormuz. But such a decision should be made by top establishment leaders,” he said.

This month, Parviz Sarvari, a member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee, said Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz as part of a military exercise.

“If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure,” he said.
In November, Iran’s energy minister told Al Jazeera television Tehran could use oil as a political tool in the event of future conflict over its nuclear program.

Dubbed Velayat-90 (Velayat is Persian for supremacy), the war games are designed to display Iran’s naval power in the face of growing international criticism of its nuclear work.

This week, Leon Panetta, the U.S. Defence Secretary, predicted Iran will be able to assemble a nuclear bomb within a year and warned the United States had not ruled out using military force to prevent that from happening.

The day before Iran announced the war games, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told CNN television the U.S. was determined to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

“My biggest worry is they will miscalculate our resolve,” he said. “Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world.”

Iran said the war games would be held in international waters.

The Strait is a 50-kilometre wide passageway through which about a third of the world’s oil tanker traffic sails. Whoever controls this crucial choke-point virtually controls Middle East oil exports.

“The importance of this waterway to both American military and economic interests is difficult to overstate,” said a report by geopolitical analysts at the global intelligence firm Stratfor.

“Considering Washington’s more general — and fundamental — interest in securing freedom of the seas, the U.S. Navy would almost be forced to respond aggressively to any attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Iran has built up a large mix of unconventional forces in the Gulf that can challenge its neighbours in a wide variety of asymmetric wars, including low-level wars of attrition,” said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington.

This includes nearly 200 missile patrol boats, equipped with sea-skimming anti-ship missiles, which “can be used to harass civil shipping and tankers, and offshore facilities, as well as attack naval vessels,” he said.

“These light naval forces have special importance because of their potential ability to threaten oil and shipping traffic in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, raid key offshore facilities and conduct raids on targets on the Gulf Coast.”

But Mr. Cordesman also warned “Iran could not ‘close the Gulf’ for more than a few days to two weeks even if it was willing to sacrifice all of these assets, suffer massive retaliation, and potentially lose many of its own oil facilities and export revenues.”

“It would almost certainly lose far more than it gained from such a ‘war,’ but nations often fail to act as rational bargainers in a crisis, particularly if attacked or if their regimes are threatened,” Mr. Cordesman wrote in a report titled Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Closing the Strait for just 30 days would send the price of crude racing up to US$300 to $500 a barrel, a level that would trigger global economic instability and cost the U.S. nearly US$75-billion in economic activity.

“One bomb on Iran and oil prices could shoot up to $300 or even $500 a barrel,” veteran UPI correspondent Arnaud de Borchgrave wrote recently.

According to a computerized war game carried out by the Heritage Foundation in Washington in 2007, the effects of an Iranian attempt to block Gulf oil shipping may be minimal because the U.S. and its allies would immediately send military and naval forces to protect shipping lanes.

If Iran destroyed oil tankers or impeded the transit of oil and other commerce, it could expect to suffer considerable damage in retaliatory attacks, the study said.

The potential for a naval confrontation comes just as the U.S. and its allies are stepping up pressure to impose even stricter economic sanctions against Iran in an effort to force it to abandon its controversial nuclear program.

This follows the introduction of stronger economic sanctions by the U.S. and Europe after a International Atomic Energy Agency report issued in November increased fears Iran is working to develop atomic bomb capability.

Sanctions appear to be hurting Iran, squeezing its banks and sending the Iranian rial plunging to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar.

Washington recently declared Iranian banks guilty of money laundering, forcing U.S. banks to step up the reporting requirements of any banks they deal with who may be doing business with Iran.
This has made it so difficult for foreign businesses many have decided to stop dealing with the Iranians.

In November, Canada and Britain also decided to sever all ties with the Central Bank of Iran and France began calling for a European Union boycott of Iranian oil.

Last week, Issa Jafari, an Iranian parliamentarian, said, “If oil sanctions are imposed on Iran, we will not allow even a single barrel of oil to be exported to countries hostile to us.”
In the past, Iranian officials have dismissed sanctions as doomed to fail, but this week Akbar Salehi, the Foreign Minister, told the official Islamic Republic New Agency, “We cannot pretend the sanctions are not having an effect.”

Mahmoud Bahmani, governor of the Central Bank of Iran, also said Iran needs to act as if it were “under siege.”
pgoodspeed@nationalpost.com

Advertisements

A Nuclear Primer for Ron Paul

WE177 Nuclear Weapon
A Iranian future?

Ron Paul’s quest for isolationism is at best a pipe dream for a utopia that doesn’t exist. In Thursday’s GOP debate he said:

“There is no evidence that they have [a nuclear weapon]. And it would make more sense — if we lived through the Cold War, which we did, with 30,000 missiles pointed at us, we ought to really sit back and think and not jump the gun and believe that we are going to be attacked,” Rep. Paul

While he is right, there is NO evidence that they currently have a nuclear weapon they do have 4,922kg of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) enriched to 3.5%, and at least 80kg of (20%) U-235. As of November 2011, Iran most likely has acquired enough U-235 to fuel its 5th bomb. With over 8000 centrifuges operating at capacity at Natanz alone, less than 400 will be needed to make the push from reactor grade to weapons grade. With current estimates at Iran’s present rate of production they will produce the 120kg of UF6 by June, 2012. Only 12 months are theoretically needed to accomplish this with only 328 centrifuges. This timetable is drastically reduced if and when Iran was to make a sprint to the finish line; doubled (656) would bring it down to 7 months, quadrupled (1312) would bring it down to under 4 months while if they used 3000, were down to 6 weeks. And I remind you this is just Natanz. This does not include Fordow at Qom were we know they are within weeks of producing more UF6 right now.

Previous reports by the Director General have identified outstanding issues related to possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program and actions required of Iran to resolve these.33 Since 2002, the Agency has become increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related activities involving military related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile, about which the Agency has regularly received new information.

The information indicates that Iran has carried out the following activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device:

  • Efforts, some successful, to procure nuclear related and dual use equipment and materials bymilitary related individuals and entities
  • Efforts to develop undeclared pathways for the production of nuclear material The acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network
  • Work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of Components

Iran is a leader all right, in human rights abuses, including stoning, decapitations, and hanging from cranes (a national favorite it seems). Iran is the number 1 sponsor of terror in the world fermenting acts of violence around the globe. They supply weapons and money to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, amongst god knows how many splinter groups. This is a country that gave plastic keys to heaven to hundreds of thousands of youth in order to march to the front where they threw themselves in front of tanks and into mine field to clear the way for the troops.

And for anyone who denies the sincerity of these genocidal monsters let me leave you with a happy quote from Ruhollah Khomeini

“We have often proclaimed this truth in our domestic and foreign policy, namely that we have set as our goal the world-wide spread of the influence of Islam and the suppression of the rule of the world conquerors … We wish to cause the corrupt roots of Zionism, capitalism and Communism to wither throughout the world. We wish, as does God almighty, to destroy the systems which are based on these three foundations, and to promote the Islamic order of the Prophet … in the world of arrogance. We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry ‘There is no God but God’ resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle. Establishing the Islamic state world-wide belong to the great goals of the revolution. Islamic Revolution … is being exported … [so that] with the dispensations of the Supreme Lord, the banner of Islam is likely to be hoisted throughout the globe in the not-too-distant future.”

No problem here, right Ron?

Jeff Treesh is @IranAware