U.S. intelligence community’s threat assessment

U.S. intelligence community’s threat assessment The al Qaedaterror network is weakening and the embattled Afghan government is making modest strides, but cyber security threats are on the rise and Iranian nuclear aspirations remain a major peril.

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From CNN’s Joe Sterling and Pam Benson

These are among the main themes in the annual U.S. intelligence community‘s threat assessment, a sweeping 31-page document released Tuesday that touches on a range of issues across the globe.

“The United States no longer faces – as in the Cold War – one dominant threat,” Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in prepared testimony to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which will meet on Tuesday to discuss the report.

He said “counterterrorism, counter-proliferation, cyber security and counter-intelligence are at the immediate forefront of our security concerns” and that the “multiplicity and interconnectedness of potential threats – and the actors behind them … constitute our biggest challenge.”

Al Qaeda – the terror network that attacked the United States on September 11, 2001 – “will continue to be a dangerous transnational force,” but there have been strides, the report concludes.

The deaths of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and top lieutenants under its new leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has made a dent in the Pakistan-based core of the group, the report said.

“These losses, combined with the long list of earlier losses since CT (counter-terror) operations intensified in 2008, lead us to assess that core al Qaeda ability to perform a variety of functions – including preserving leadership and conducting external operations – has weakened significantly,” the report said.

“We judge that al Qaeda’s losses are so substantial and its operating environment so restricted that a new group of leaders, even if they could be found, would have difficulty integrating into the organization and compensating for mounting losses.”

They expect the leadership to have “sustained degradation, diminished cohesion and decreasing influence in the coming year.” Al Qaeda will try to “execute smaller, simpler plots to demonstrate relevance.”

The death of bin Laden and other leaders has affected their influence in the Arab uprisings, the report says.

“They probably will struggle to keep pace with events,” the report said. “Rhetoric from Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s successor, has not resonated with the populations of countries experiencing protests.”

“Prolonged instability” in the Arab world could work in al Qaeda’s favor.

But, “if over the longer term, governments take real steps to address public demands for political participation and democratic institutions – and remain committed to CT (counter-terror) efforts, we judge that core al Qaeda and the global jihadist movement will experience a strategic setback,” the report said.

The report cites al Qaeda affiliates al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, based in Yemen, al Qaeda in Iraq, al Qaeda in the Islamic Mahgreb in northern Africa, and Al-Shabaab in Somalia as dangers. They “will remain committed to the group’s ideology, and in terms of threats to U.S. interests will surpass the remnants of core al Qaeda in Pakistan.”

It says that despite the death of Anwar al-Awlaki, the AQAP “transnational operations chief” last year, AQAP “remains the node most likely to attempt transnational attacks.” However, the death “probably reduces” its “ability to plan attacks.”

The report also says al Qaeda’s impact on the insurgency in war-torn Afghanistan is “limited.”

“Al Qaeda is committed to the Afghan jihad, and the propaganda gains from participating in insurgent attacks outweigh their limited battlefield impact,” the document says.

As for the government, it “will continue to make incremental, fragile progress in governance, security and development.”

The Taliban-led insurgents have “lost ground in some areas,” but mainly where NATO-led “surge forces are concentrated.” Insurgents remain “resilient” and senior Taliban leaders “enjoy safe haven in Pakistan.”

There have been improvements in “extending rule of law” and most provinces have established basic governance structure.” President Hamid Karzai’s government “did achieve some successes” last year, citing security transition to Afghan leadership.

Only brief references were made to Pakistan, despite its importance in the war against terror and the deep U.S. rift with the government, accentuated after Navy Seals assassinated bin Laden in Abbottabad. It cites al Qaeda’s increasing reliance on “ideological and operational alliances with Pakistani militant facts to accomplish its goals within Pakistan and to conduct transnational attacks.” It said the country’s leaders have had “limited success against the group’s operatives.” It also said the country’s “economic recovery” is at risk for various factors.

As for Iran, the report said it will attempt to “undermine any strategic partnership between the United States and Afghanistan” and it continues to play a destabilizing role across the globe. The report cites the plot last year to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States and concern about “Iranian plotting against U.S. or allied interests.”

It isn’t known if Iran will build a nuclear weapon, but “we assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.”

It would most likely use missiles to deliver nuclear weapons, saying that the country has “the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.”

“It is expanding the scale, reach, and sophistication of its ballistic missile forces, many of which are inherently capable of carrying a nuclear payload,” it said.

“Iran’s technical advancement, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthens our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so. These advancements contribute to our judgment that Iran is technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, if it so chooses.”

The report cities Iran’s economic problems and notes the international sanctions against the regime because of its nuclear aspirations.

“Despite this, Iran’s economic difficulties probably will not jeopardize the regime, absent a sudden and sustained fall in oil prices or a sudden domestic crisis that disrupts oil exports,” the report said.

Iran was cited in the report’s section about the “evolving and strategic concern” of cyber threats. The country’s increasing intelligence operations against the United States include “cyber capabilities.” It said Russia, and China, as well as Iran, will be top espionage threats in “coming years.”

Entities in China and Russia “are responsible for extensive illicit intrusions into U.S. computer networks and theft of U.S. intellectual property.”

Foreign intelligence services have launched operations targeting U.S. entities and “we assess many intrusions into U.S. networks are not being detected.” It also cites “insider threats” to classified information, saying “trusted” people are using access to computer networks for “malicious intent.”

The report says strides in information technology are “increasing exponentially” and “emerging technologies are developed and implemented faster than governments can keep pace.”

It cites the “failed efforts” to censor social media during the Arab Spring and denial of service attacks and website defacements by hackers against governments and corporations.

“The well-publicized intrusions into NASDAQ and International Monetary Fund networks underscore the vulnerability of key sectors of the U.S. and global economy,” the report says.

It says the U.S. government and the private sector must work together to counter the threat.

The report touched on other places: India, Pakistan, North Korea, China, Cuba, Haiti, Mexico, Venezuela, Central Asia, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Central Africa’s Great Lakes region, Russia, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Ukraine, Belarus, and Turkey and the Kurds.

It also dealt with the subjects of space, energy, world financial markets, water security, health threats, and mass atrocities.

Ahmadinejad lauds launch of Iran’s Spanish-language satellite TV as blow to US dominance

TEHRAN, IranIran’s president on Tuesday lauded his country’s newly launched Spanish-language satellite TV channel, saying it would deal a blow to “dominance seekers” — remarks that were an apparent jab at the U.S. and the West.

English: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a...

By Associated Press, Updated: Tuesday, January 31, 5:35 AM

The launch is Tehran’s latest effort to reach out to friendly governments in Latin America and follows Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s four-nation tour of the region earlier in January, which included stops in Cuba and visits to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Ecuador.

It also comes as Washington and Europe have imposed tougher sanctions on Tehran over its controversial nuclear program. The EU last week imposed an oil embargo against Iran and froze the assets of its central bank. In December, the United States said it would bar financial institutions from the U.S. market if they do business with Iran’s central bank.

Iran’s broadcasting company said Hispan TV — the first Spanish-language channel airing from the Middle East — will broadcast news, documentaries, movies and Iranian films 24 hours a day.

Iran’s state TV said the channel, which had been on air on a trial basis since October with a 16-hour daily program, will target millions of Spanish-speaking people throughout the world.

“The new channel will limit the ground for supremacy of dominance seekers,” Ahmadinejad said during a Tehran ceremony marking the inauguration. “It will be a means for better ties between people and governments of Iran and Spanish-speaking nations.”

Ahmadinejad ended his speech in Spanish: “Viva la Paz! Viva el Pueblo! Viva America Latina!”

Iran broadcasts daily in five other foreign languages, including in English through state-run Press TV and in Arabic via Al-Alam TV.

The West suspects Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon, a charge that Tehran denies, insisting its atomic program is only for peaceful purposes such as power generation.

Jihad: When Elections Fail

The Obama administration supports “democracy” and “self determination” in the Middle East—two euphemisms that, in the real world, refer to “mob-rule” and “Islamic radicalization,” respectively. Yet, as Jimmy Carter recently put it: “I don’t have any problem with that [an “Islamist victory” in Egypt], and the U.S. government doesn’t have any problem with that either. We want the will of the Egyptian people to be expressed.”

The "black flag of jihad" as used by...

Sounds fair enough. The problem, however, is that Muslim clerics openly and unequivocally characterize democracy and elections as tools to be discarded once they empower Sharia law. Thus Dr. Talat Zahran holds that it is “obligatory to cheat at elections—a beautiful thing”; and Sheikh Abdel Shahat insists that democracy is not merely forbidden in Islam, but kufr—a great and terrible sin—this even as he competed in Egypt’s elections.

The Obama administration can overlook such election-exploitation because the majority of Muslims are either indifferent or willing to go along with the gag—with only a minority (secularists, Copts, etc.) in Egypt actually objecting to how elections are being used to empower Sharia-enforcing Muslims.

But what if Muslims do not win elections? What if there are equal amounts of non-Muslims voting—and an “infidel” wins? What then? Then we get situations like Nigeria.

While many are aware that Boko Haram and other Islamic elements are waging jihad against the government of Nigeria, specificallytargeting Christians, often overlooked is that the jihad was provoked into full-blown activity because a Christian won fair elections (Nigeria is about evenly split between Christians and Muslims).

According to Peter Run, writing back in April 2011

The current wave of riots was triggered by the Independent National Election Commission’s (INEC) announcement on Monday [April 18, 2011] that the incumbent President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, won in the initial round of ballot counts. That there were riots in the largely Muslim inhabited northern states where the defeat of the Muslim candidate Muhammadu Buhari was intolerable, [but] was unsurprising. Northerners [Muslims] felt they were entitled to the presidency for the declared winner, President Jonathan, [who] assumed leadership after the Muslim president, Umaru Yar’Adua died in office last year and radical groups in the north [Boko Haram] had seen his ascent [Christian president] as a temporary matter to be corrected at this year’s election. Now they are angry despite experts and observers concurring that this is the fairest and most independent election in recent Nigerian history.

Note some key words: Muslims felt “entitled” to the presidency and seek to “correct” the fact that a Christian won elections—which they assumed “a temporary matter.”

Of course, had elections empowered a like-minded Muslim, the same jihadis would still be there, would still have the same savage intent for Christians and Westerners—Boko Haram means “Western education is forbidden.” But there would not be a fullblown jihad, and Obama would be singing praises to Nigerian democracy and elections, and the MSM would be boasting images of Nigerians with ink-stained fingers.

Yet the same jihadi intent would be there, only dormant. Like Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood—whose ultimate goal is “mastership of the world”—they would not need to expose themselves via jihad, would be biding their time and consolidating their strength.

Now, back to the Egyptian clerics, specifically Sheikh Yassir al-Burhami—yet another leader in Egypt’s Salafi movement, who teaches that Muslims must preach peace when weak but wage war when strong. Discussing the chances of a fellow Salafi, Burhami asserts:

We say—regardless of the outcome of the elections—whether he [his colleague, the aforementioned al-Shahat] wins or loses, we will not permit an infidel [kafir] to be appointed to a post where he assumes authority over Muslims. This is forbidden. Allah said: “Never will Allah grant to infidels a way [to triumph] over the believers [Koran 4:141].” We are not worried about losing elections or al-Shahat losing votes. We will not flatter or fawn to the people.

What will you and your associates do, Sheikh Burhami—wage jihad? Of course, that will not be necessary: unlike Nigeria, most of Egypt is Muslim; one way or another, “elections” will realize the Islamist agenda.

Thus, whether by word (al-Burhami) or deed (Boko Haram) those who seek to make Islam supreme prove that democracy and elections are acceptable only insofar as they enable Sharia. Conversely, if they lead to something that contradicts Sharia—for instance, by bringing a Christian infidel to power—then the perennial jihad resumes.

Posted By Raymond Ibrahim On January 31, 2012

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Article printed from FrontPage Magazine: http://frontpagemag.com

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